Now in its fifth consecutive year, we are proud to release our 2013 cruise market statistics. In that short span of time the industry has robustly managed both a “great recession” and a once in a century ship incident.
The Costa Concordia and European sovereign debt crisis impacted all cruise line revenues by about -5.1% from our original 2012 estimate (made two months prior to Concorida in November 2011). The actual revenue versus forecast difference was largest for Carnival Corporation (-9.2%) compared to -2.5% for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Passengers carried however continued to climb. Compared to our original 2012 forecast of 5.6% growth, actual results were very accurate. Carnival was down just -0.9% while Royal Caribbean was up 0.3% versus original estimates. All-in-all, 2013 looks to rebound strongly from the year prior on all accounts.
Among the 2013 highlights:
- - The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $36.2 billion, up 4.8% from 2012.
- - Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2013 is forecast at 20.9 million, a 3.3% increase over 2012.
- - The top two cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) and Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) account for 71.7% of worldwide share of revenue
- - Direct spending by passengers and crew at all cruise ports in the world is estimated at $17.5 billion.
- - The top two ports are Miami, FL for embarkations and Nassau Bahamas as destination.
- - Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2013 will be 438,595 passengers (a 3.0% increase over 2012) and 283 ships.
- - The average per passenger per day is projected to be $200.85, with $152.39 ticket price and $48.47 on board spending (average cruise duration 8.5 days, median duration 7.0 days).
A total of six new ships will be added in 2013 with a gain in passenger capacity of 14,074 (including the 3,600 passenger Royal Princess, the 4,010 passenger Norwegian Breakaway, 2,192-guest AIDAstella and 3,502 berth MSC Preziosa). Looking out further, 13 more new cruise ships will add 39,297 lower births or 8.9% to passenger capacity by the end of 2015 – generating $3.2 billion more in annual revenue for the cruise industry.
By 2017, 23.7 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 59.1% will originate from North America and 27.4% Europe.