We at Cruise Market Watch are proud to release our seventh consecutive annual cruise market forecast, now looking out into 2015 and beyond.
Actual 2014 revenues came in +0.5% better than originally forecast last year, and that positive momentum is expected to continue on into 2015.
Among the 2015 foretasted highlights:
~The worldwide cruise market is estimated at $39.6 billion, up 6.9% from 2014 driven by a combination of more cruisers/higher capacity and higher prices.
~Cruise passengers carried worldwide in 2015 is forecast at 22.2 million, a 3.2% increase over 2014.
~Worldwide sourcing of passengers is expected to be 58.6% North America (Canada, United States and Mexico) followed by Europe (25.9%), Asia (8.5%) and Australia (4.3%).
~Total worldwide cruise capacity at the end of 2015 will be 486,385 passengers and 298 ships.
~The total price of an average cruise is $1779.82 per person, a 3.5% increase over 2014. The average per passenger per day spending is projected to be $222.00, with $168.43 ticket price and $53.57 on board spending (average cruise duration 8.0 days, median duration 7.0 days).
~The top three cruise companies Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Co (NYSE: RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ: NCLH) account for 81.6% of worldwide share of passengers carried and 76.7% of worldwide share of revenues.
Reflective of continued international growth, during 2015 the Celebrity Century will transfer to the TUI brand as the Mein Schiff 3. In addition, both Holland America’s Ryndam and Statendam will transfer to P&O Australia. Lastly, the Seabourn Legend and Seabourn Spirit will both transfer to Windstar. Carnival, Costa and P&O Australia will combine to have 13 ships home porting in Asia and Australia, and there will be another 5 cruise ships home porting in the region under the Royal Caribbean brand.
A total of six new ships will be added in 2015 with a gain in passenger capacity of 18,813 (including the 4,200 passenger Norwegian Escape, the 4,100 passenger Royal Caribbean Anthem of the Seas, 3,611-guest P&O Britannia and 3,250 berth TUI Cruises Mein Schiff 4).
Looking out further, 15 more new cruise ships will add 39,637 or 8.1% to passenger capacity by the end of 2017 – generating $3.6 billion more in annual revenue for the cruise industry.
By 2019, 25.3 million cruise passengers are expected to be carried worldwide of which 55.8% will originate from North America, 25.1% Europe and 19.1% the rest of the world.